EURO 2008 Preview

EURO 2008 gets underway June 7 in Austria and Switzerland. The EURO is like the World Cup, but just for Europe. While seemingly offering little that the World Cup doesn't offer, it can actually be the more thrilling of the two competitions, and heroes and goats are made just as easily. (David Beckham at EURO 2004 comes to mind.)

While at the World Cup, European teams make up roughly half the competition, the EURO gives them their own party, and kicks the Saudi Arabias and the Trinidad and Tobagos out. No 8-0 drubbings here. The competition is elite, and the field is arguably deeper than the World Cup. Quite possibly every one of the 16 teams still alive has the talent to win it this year.

The tournament gets underway June 7, but with my my new job starting next week (which unlike my old job, I may actually have to do work), I gotta get my obligatory EURO 2008 Preview taken care of. With that, here comes as best of a EURO Preview as I can provide as to determine who will be dancing with the Von Trapps in Vienna for the Final.

Group A: Portugal, Turkey, Czech Republic, Switzerland
Portugal has to be considered one of the favorites for the competition. EURO runners-up in 2004 and World Cup semifinalists in 2006, the Portuguese boast one of the most athletic and technically skilled sides in Europe. Manchester United's Cristiano Ronaldo is already arguably one of the best players in the world, but leading Portugal to their first EURO win and Manchester United to the Champions League title in the same month would likely cement his place in Soccer's all-time pantheon alongside players like Pele, Beckenbauer, Zidane, and Diego Maradona. Portugal lost the fewest games in their group in qualifying (only a 2-1 loss at Poland). With a relatively easy group, and some of Europe's biggest stars, Portugal has to be considered among the favorites not just to advance out of group, but to win the tournament outright.

Turkey is the wild card of this group. I'm picking them to take second in the group perhaps largely as overcompensation for my 2006 World Cup picks, where I perhaps irrationally favored the Czechs, who did not even make it out of the group stage.

The Czechs certainly have a great keeper in Petr Cech, but beyond that and Thomas Rosicky, the Czechs don't exactly have the kind of lineup that strikes fear. Switzerland could get a host nation bump to get a result against the dangerous Turks or the star-laden Portuguese, but ultimately, I don't think they have the talent to get out of the group.

Group B: Germany, Croatia, Poland, Austria
Germany is clearly the favorite here. A 3rd-place finish at the 2006 World Cup, and runners-up at the 2002 World Cup, the Germans boast a roster featuring Chelsea's Michael Ballack and 2006 World Cup leading scorer Miroslav Klose. Arsenal's Jens Lehmann takes over the goalkeeper reins from longtime German keeper Olivier Kahn, but will need to be on his best form if he wants to lead die Mannschaft to their fourth EURO trophy.

Croatia appears the favorite to advance along with Germany. A young team, only 7 players on the 23-man roster are over the age of 30. Croatia racked up some impressive victories in qualifying, including a win over England at Wembley on the last day of qualifying to send the Croats through and the English to an unplanned summer off.

Poland SHOULD HAVE BEEN the other team to go through. They certainly have the talent, but I do not have a lot of confidence in them. Make no mistake. Lightbulb jokes aside, the Poles are a very capable team, and may very well be able to knock off Croatia for the second spot out of the group (or maybe even give Germany a scare!). However, inexperience and a run of poor form at the worst possible time may doom them. Poland is making their first-ever appearance at the EURO, and the run up to the tournament does not really inspire fear in anyone. The Poles were victim to a 3-0 drubbing at the hands of the United States in front of a sold out crowd in Krakow. This same US team just got outclassed 2-0 by an England side that didn't even qualify for the EURO. Other recent contests included a 1-1 draw with tiny Macedonia and a 1-0 win over even tinier Albania. I've listed Poland to finish third, but would not be surprised to see them finish last.

Austria, like co-hosts Switzerland, may benefit from a host nation bump to get a result, but I'd actually put the Swiss as more likely to advance to the quarterfinals given their past history in major competitions. The Swiss were Final-16 contenders at the last World Cup. On the other side, Austria is making their first appearance in the EURO, and has not escaped from the group stage at the World Cup since 1982.

Group C: Netherlands, France, Italy, Romania

Every tournament has a group of death, and for EURO 2008, this is it. Group C includes the two 2006 World Cup finalists in France and Italy, alongside the Netherlands, a team led by Real Madrid's Ruud Van Nistelroy and Manchester United's Edwin Van der Sar that is as capable of winning this tournament as any.

France is a side in transition. Zidane's retirement after the 2006 World Cup, France must rely on a new generation of stars. Barcelona's Thierry Henry is the new face of the team, with experience to boot. Henry has already played in two World Cup Finals with France (1998 and 2006), and led France to a World Cup title (1998) and a EURO championship (2000), and he's still only and Franck Ribery of Bayern Munich will likewise be needed to contribute. The key players for Les Bleus I think may well be Nicholas Anelka (Chelsea) and Florent Malouda.

The World Champion Azzuri may very well be the odd team out for the quarterfinals, and their roster, despite boasting a wealth of world class players whose names roll off the tongue like linguini. The only problem facing this Italian side is that Fabio Cannavaro, Buffon, Ambrosini, Del Piero, and Materazzi, is that they are old and only getting older. While younger stars like Daniele de Rossi might impress, 14 out of the 23 players on the roster are over the age of 30 (Compared to 7 for France). Italy may benefit from a "win now" mentality, but at this stage of the game, every team has that. Italy and France met twice in qualifying, with both matches ending in draws.

Romania put together a decent qualifying campaign I think the French and Dutch are the class of this group. Romania could steal points and determine who moves on, but they themselves will probably not be advancing given the depth of talent in this group.

Group D: Spain, Greece, Russia, Sweden

Spain are back once again, and once again will advance out of group, but once again will not be lifting trophies at the end of the tournament. It's a familiar story as old as time. La Furia has not won the EURO since 1964. Spain is certainly a talented side featuring the likes of Real Madrid's goalkeeper Iker Casillas and Arsenal's Cesc Fabregas. Spain has also notched some victories over high profile opponents in France and Italy so far this year in their run-up preparations. An imminent meeting with the United States in Santander, Spain will tell a lot about how far this team has come, and how ready they are for the EURO.

Greece are the defending Champions, having won EURO 2004 in Portugal, but color me not impressed. Greece ran away with what was a really weak qualifying group (Turkey, Bosnia, Hungary, Norway, Moldova, and Malta) I'm picking them to advance practically solely on their success in the last tournament, and their relative success in qualifying compared to Russia.

Spain and Sweden met twice in qualifying, with both sides claiming shutout victories at home. Sweden made it to the last 16 of the 2006 World Cup, and I feel like I have to label them as my dark horse in this group.

Russia is in this tournament finals more because England couldn't take care of business than for anything the Ruskies did. Against the three other teams in Russia's group that I gave at least a shot to reach the finals (England, Croatia, and Israel), Russia managed to run up an awe-inspiring 1-2-3 record.

So sit back, drink a Stiegl or chomp on a Toblerone and enjoy this year's EURO. Then laugh at how astonishingly off my predictions were, just like my World Cup picks two years ago.

Wag of the Finger to our former Colonial Overlords

Yes, I know I haven't posted in months. Like soccer, law school has a way of consuming your life untill it reaches the point where you can't think about anything else. Unlike soccer, you do not get the dizzying highs, however, you also learn to recognize a blatant miscarriage of justice.

Manchester City had looked to sign Iraq international Nashat Akram during the winter transfer window in a move to help solidify a place in European competition next season. If the transfer went through, Akram would be the first Iraqi to play in the Premiership. However, Akram's work permit (issued by the British home office to non-European players) was rejected because Iraq is not in the top 70 countries in the world for soccer.

They are #72.

While this technicality may put Iraq south of an arbitrary line, keep in mind, that due to security fears and reprisals from terror groups and Saddam Hussein, Iraq has not played a "home" game in 20 years.

This did not stop the band of players from the war-torn country from winning the 2007 Asian Cup in Southeast Asia. A team of Shi'ites, Sunnis, and Kurds uniting as one team to take on all comers. Iraq defeated 2006 World Cup Finalists Australia, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia on their march to the title.

This did not stop the Iraqi team from winning the Gold Medal at the 2004 Athens Olympics.

An exception should be made in Akram's case. The Iraqi team has had to overcome more than any football team should be expected to do. What this decision smacks of is protectionism. England has the most popular league in the world, drawing in fans and players from all over the globe. What this has meant is an influx of foreign talent, and a dearth of opportunities for English players, a shortcoming that has seen itself reaped at the last two World Cups, where English teams were perceived as underachieving. Akram was a solid contributor and if allowed to play, could very well have led City to a European place, but he would have done so at the expense of an English player. (City has 8 on their roster, more than any other country).

City will try again during the summer transfer window, but Akram should be suiting up for the Sky Blues this season.

Leeds Could Drop Again Without Playing a Game

English football is not necessarily known for its unpredictability. Manchester United, Arsenal, or Chelsea have won every Premier League title save one since the Premier League was created in the early 1990s. Pick Man U, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea to finish in any order, and odds are pretty solid that you will correctly pick the superfecta box for the four teams England sends to the Champions League each season.

However, just when you think it's predictable and pre-written, there's a club like Reading that bursts onto the Premiership scene last year for the first time, and just barely misses out on a European spot. The small teams rise up and grab their share of the glory. However, it's a zero sum game, and for whoever comes up, someone must go down, and in this case, we have clubs like Leeds United to remind us that the game can change at any moment.

Leeds United were formerly a great club. Their rivalry with Manchester United peaked in the 1990s when both clubs were solid domestically and were always competing for league titles and European placement. As recently as 2001, Leeds were in the semifinals of the Champions League. Even after being relegated from the Premiership in 2003, only a year ago Leeds were one game away from returning to the top flight before bowing to Watford in the Play-off Final. Another relegation followed this past season, and the club's massive debt pushed them into administration. Now Leeds are up for sale, and it could get even worse. Reports coming out of Elland Road indicate that if Leeds are not out of administration by the time the League 1 Season starts in August, then the FA will not allow them to play. I am not sure if this means that they would simply be suspended untill their finances are in order or if it means that they would be relegated from the Football League alltogether, which would mark the most stunning reversal of fortune in English Football for years. From European semifinalists to non-league football in 6 years.